Nuts and Bolts
Spending some time on the workings of government this week.
COVID: As Covid vaccinations speed along, US states are on divergent paths to Biden’s July 4th, 70% vaccinated (at least one shot) goal. Twelve states have hit that mark, all of them Democrat strongholds primarily in the Northeast and West. 30 states however are unlikely to meet that independence day deadline. Some of this is because of access in rural areas, but it’s pretty easy to get a shot if you put in a little bit of effort. Now, the White House is going to spend $3 Billion getting vaccine confidence up. For reference, that could buy 125 million Pfizer doses (the most expensive vaccine). Americans, and popular Republicans, have cost us not only thousands of lives with their myths about vaccines, they are also costing us Billions of dollars which could be spent on ending this pandemic worldwide sooner, or on any other economic boost the country needs right now. The US has pledged to give out 80 million vaccine doses by July, 25 million of which should be going out any day, but we could probably end the pandemic in all of the Americas. Part of me is happy that I live in such a selfish, rich country that bought up vaccine supply to give to its selfish, pandemic restriction eschewing population, but there is certainly some guilt that in the country that largely let Covid run unchecked, we are miles ahead of everyone else in vaccinations and ending this pandemic. And it is far from over elsewhere: it’s likely that up to 10,000 people are dying from Covid in India every day.
TEXAS: The Lone-star State is having a banner month for horrendous laws. Horrendous is my opinion, the Governor is very satisfied with what he called “one of the most conservative sessions our state has ever seen.” If you just search “Texas law” you’ll probably see a dozen articles about the variety of legislation that has been passed in the Senate, signed into law, or is close to either, so I thought we should bring them all together here. First up is an abortion ban if a fetal heartbeat is detected. This can happen as soon as 6 weeks into a pregnancy, well before most women realize they are pregnant. Other states have pursued similarly strict bans, and the Supreme Court is hearing a case from Mississippi that could toss Roe v. Wade (it is a conservative supermajority) and if there is no Constitutional right to an abortion, these types of bans will become increasingly common. It’s especially ironic from a party who has co-opted “my body my choice” for mask wearing, including as recently as the junior Senator from Texas.
In the wake of a tragic mass shooting in El Paso, Texan politicians from both sides of the aisle said there was a need for gun reform. They did certainly change things, but it is not limiting guns. Republicans finally passed “Constitutional carry” which means that anyone can carry a gun in the state. You no longer need a license or any training to be allowed to bring a handgun around in public. Even police are unsupportive of this law, reasonably so as it’s more likely that someone shoots a gun if everyone is carrying. It’s a wild extension of the 2nd Amendment and because any gun restrictions are especially hard for people to face, this is likely a huge hurdle for passing any sort of background check or red-flag common sense gun control laws. Americans do have a right to bear arms, but if you need to pass a test to drive a car, you certainly should at least need to get a license to possess a deadly weapon in public.
Even though law enforcement is against that law, the state is still claiming to “back the blue” after passing a series of bills labeled as such. One makes it illegal for local governments of cities with over 250,000 residents to decrease police funding, and if they do the state will appropriate some of their tax revenue and prevent them from increasing certain taxes to offset the penalties. Another outlaws any decreases in police budgets in cities with over a million people without a voter referendum, or tax revenue will be suspended. Of course, small (more right-leaning) jurisdictions don’t have these requirements and will be able to create budgets normally based on the needs of their residents, not some arbitrary decision by the state government. Other laws include mandatory felony and jail sentences for protestors who “knowingly” block emergency vehicles or block access to hospitals. While this is meant to prevent protests from endangering lives of people being rushed to the hospital, police cars are emergency vehicles, so now anyone standing in front of a cop car during a protest could be dealing with a felony charge. It’s a brutal attack on the 1st Amendment, and will lead to harsher crack downs on all sorts of protests.
The biggest anti-democratic law is also the one that so far has not been passed: an incredibly restrictive voting law. Like in many other states, Republicans are using the lie that the election was stolen to push voting restrictions that will not do much to make elections more secure but will limit people from voting, especially people of color. Democrats walked out of the legislative session after the bill was written behind closed doors and not shown to them, stalling it for now, although the Governor says he will be calling a special session to get it passed. It specifically prohibits things that Harris County, the county Houston is in, did in the last election, such as having a 24 hour early voting location, drop boxes for ballots, and “drive-thru” voting. It makes it very challenging to get a mail ballot and enhanced scrutiny of signature matching. It also criminalizes things like sending out mail ballot request forms en masse or “vote harvesting” and puts onerous requirements on anyone assisting a voter or even driving someone to the polls. The state is slowly becoming bluer, but all these laws will probably slow that tide, as it will now take that much more effort to turn out voters or even for voters themselves to vote.
Additionally, it makes it easier to overturn an election: before there needed to be “clear and convincing evidence” that fraud “materially affected the election’s results.” Now, there only needs to be “preponderance of the evidence” (greater than 50% confidence) that the number of illegal votes cast could have changed the outcome, so even if those votes didn’t actually change the actual result, the election could still be overturned. It’s an ominous sign that maybe Republicans will refuse to certify elections that don’t go their way. Abbott is still promising to do “things no state has done before” in terms of securing the border, hinting that the state is not even close to done from turning into a conservative fantasy-land that will continuously make life worse but will definitely be an achievement in “owning the libs.”
FILIBUSTER: With all these restrictive voting laws, Democrats were hoping to secure voting rights by passing HR1 or the John Lewis voting rights act, but thanks to Joe Manchin those seem like pipe dreams. The moderate Democrat from West Virginia has said he will not toss the filibuster for any reason, whether that be to investigate an insurrection or protect American democracy. He may get on board with a change to the filibuster that would require Senators to actually hold the floor to prevent a vote, something Biden has said he would want to see happen. The filibuster is actually not even part of the Constitution — it started in 1806 when the Senate scrapped a rule that allowed a simple majority to close debate on legislation. It’s been called a Jim Crow relic because most of what it was used for was racist, primarily blocking civil rights and anti-lynching legislation as well protecting slaveholding states’ interests back in the 1800s. The talking to hold the floor part vanished with a 1970s rule change allowed for multiple bills to be considered at once, so as long as you didn’t get 60 Senators to end debate on a specific bill, it could be held up indefinitely while the Senate moves on to other business. Democrats eliminated filibustering Presidential nominees in 2013 as Republicans were deep in their Obama-obstruction phase, and Republicans eliminated filibustering Supreme Court nominees in 2017, after refusing to seat an Obama-appointed Justice for nearly a year. They did not however eliminate it for legislation, maybe because the only real policies of the Trump years were tax cuts which could be achieved through reconciliation (the way the most recent Covid relief bill was passed). For now, it looks like its here to stay, probably foiling most of Biden’s attempts to pass any meaningful progressive legislation or protect democracy, which some Republicans seem to be tired of.
ISRAEL: A unique government coalition is forming in Israel with one goal: remove Bibi Netanyahu. The government combines politicians from the edges of the right and left, includes the Arab party, and would have a prime minister who is openly advocating annexing parts of the West Bank. It’s unclear what sort of shared priorities these disparate groups have other than a strong desire to rid the country of Netanyahu who has had corruption scandals and no confidence votes. The country hasn’t passed a real budget since 2018, so it might be able to do that, but it’s a mystery how this will change the state’s relationship to Palestinians. While having the Arab party and other left leaning groups in the government may push the country to relax some of their discriminatory powers, the leader for the next two years is even more right wing than Netanyahu. It’s an experimental group and maybe Bibi will pull a rabbit out of his hat and stay in power a bit longer if he can chip off any one party of this medley coalition.
