Back To Business
As the pandemic effects shrink week by week, it’s time to look forward.
COVID: This week, President Biden took his first foreign trip to visit Europe and G7 leaders, as well as to meet with NATO leaders and Russian President Putin. He is making it clear that despite anti-democratic tendencies brewing inside the United States, we can still be a leader of the free world. Part of this included unveiling a new Atlantic Charter, another effort to tie himself to FDR, and announcing the donation of 500 million Covid-19 vaccine doses to be donated around the world. Of course, he could have waived patents, but this deal will create jobs in the USA (the Pfizer doses will be manufactured here) and he’ll be able to take credit for helping curb the pandemic around the world. Realistically, more doses are needed, and he should probably double that amount. Covid-19 is basically an afterthought in America, as states that have had strict lockdowns finally open back up, with pomp and circumstance, while the other states continue to forget about a pandemic they largely didn’t worry about. But while Americans move on, the death toll from Covid-19 in 2021 has surpassed the 2020 death toll worldwide, and with 6 months still to go, it’s likely the 2021 deaths may be double or triple those of 2020.
ECONOMY: Partly thanks to our ability to contain Covid in comparison to the rest of the world, the economy is actually roaring back. The World Bank bumped up the US growth forecast to 6.8%, which is the highest it’s been since 1984 and almost double what they were predicting at the end of the Trump presidency. A lot of that is fueled by government spending, which some worry is driving up inflation too quickly. US prices are up 5% from last May, compared to normal inflation rates under 1%, but part of that increase is due to the fact that last May, prices were depressed as we were deep into lockdowns and demand was incredibly low. Inflation is an issue, but we aren’t hyper inflating and the US maintains enough hard and soft power and the US dollar is so integral to international markets that even if the value of the dollar sinks, it won’t become worthless as some reactionary economists are worrying.
Republicans have taken to rising prices as a sign that Biden is “raising taxes” on the middle class, since increases in prices hit the poor and working class most. The two issues with that argument are that they are also using comparisons to depressed, pandemic lockdown prices, and that workers are starting to make more money. While progressives have been fighting for a $15 minimum wage for years, it’s about to happen without being federally mandated. A combination of enhanced unemployment benefits, a societal moment of self-reflection on the importance of work vs. personal time, and skyrocketing consumer demand that companies were not prepared for is fueling a sellers market for employment. Companies are offering not only higher (living) wages, but benefits such as college payments for employees and a family member, free food just for an application, and signing bonuses. The fear has long been that wage hikes would cause unemployment, but at this point there is more demand for workers than there are people willing to work. The unemployment rate was at an all-time low before the pandemic, yet the job market is in some ways better now than it was then. Yes, companies have to compete for employees but it’s not horrific like you might think if you watch Fox News, where a guest recently said poor people don’t deserve $15 an hour. Instead, it’s the free market at work, but this time it’s just not completely benefitting the rich.
This massive shift in wages and mentality around work is likely to persist, and while the US exits the pandemic as other countries deal with the lingering disease, tourism and investment here will also start to pick up. Conservative economists are right to worry about high inflation and rising debt (even if they only bring it up with a Democrat in charge and not when Trump boosted our deficit more than any other President), but if you look at the state of the workers, the economy is about to be in tip-top shape. If only our corporations and billionaires would start paying a little more in taxes we could maybe even start to whittle down the deficit and keep up government spending that is lighting a fire under America’s economy.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Speaking of that spending, negotiations between the White House and one group of Republicans broke down after they couldn’t close the wide gap on the amount to spend, the prioritizes of the bill, and how to pay for it. While Biden dropped his original proposal by a Trillion dollars, Republicans only came up by $150 Billion, and there were still huge disparities on whether to focus on green energy subsidies as well as what tax changes would be implemented to foot the bill. Now, Biden has pivoted to a moderate group of Senators including Joe Manchin and Mitt Romney, and they seem to have struck a tentative deal. They haven’t released the specifics, as they continue to hash out where the money will go, but it will probably come in around the $1.5 Trillion mark with more emphasis on “traditional” infrastructure like repairing roads and bridges and less on EV subsidies. In an ideal world, Biden could get through this spending package, which the group says can be paid for mostly with leftover money allocated from Covid-19 recovery bills, and then pass a more climate change focused proposal with increased taxes on the wealthy through reconciliation, if he can keep the party together.
WASHINGTON SQUARE PARK: Last weekend, riot cops cleared out Washington Square Park on a Saturday night at 10PM, allegedly because people complained about noise and drugs. On Sunday night, people flocked to the park, in solidarity and to ensure that when the new, randomly decided 10PM curfew rolled around there would be a visible resistance to the militarization of a popular public square. The police didn’t show up though, since chasing innocent park-goers, including families and people on dates through the street is a bad look, and the NYPD is trying to get one of their own elected to office. Washington Square Park, despite the Post’s “reporting” is not a drug infested square of sin. It’s actually one of the most vibrant, fun, and uniquely New York parks in the city. Sanitizing it with violent police is not making the city any safer.
We are at a turning point for New York. Our past 40 years have been dominated by a focus on Wall Street and crime, sometimes to the benefit of the city and sometimes to the detriment, depending on who you are. In 1981, crime was a real issue, the city was broke, and allowing Wall Street money to dominate city planning while expanding the police contributed to in some ways to making New York the international powerhouse of a city it is today. But just as important as that was Gordon Davis reviving and cleaning the city’s parks, or Ed Koch trying to get families to own their homes. In the Bloomberg years especially, the public-private partnerships that helped revitalize the city were put on steroids, and we ended up with billions of dollars funneled into Hudson Yards and the Oculus mall — impressive glass sculptures for the ultra rich with money that could have been used to fix crumbling infrastructure. Now, with such a dramatic shift in New Yorker’s lives over the past year, we have a mayoral election to decide if we want to continue to build a city for Wall Street and their international friends, or for the people who live here.
This is the last LAWN before the NYC mayoral election (I’m on vacation next week) so I thought I should give my final ranking. This could change, but for now, Maya Wiley is my number one, then Kathryn Garcia, and I’m likely to rank Paperboy Prince and Shaun Donovan as well (for Manhattan DA I’m going with Eliza Orlins). Maya Wiley is the most progressive, and hopefully the left can coalesce around her. She is the counter-programming to the NYC of the past 40 years, and what we need now is not more police or another Vessel but progressive zoning laws, funding of social services, and policies that allow people to actually afford to live here. Kathryn Garcia would also be a capable mayor, and she wants to completely transform the urban landscape (for the better) with bike lanes, open streets, and Amsterdam style plazas and curbs. Both of their visions will improve the city. Eric Adams, who has spouted rhetoric that sounds very similar to Rudy Giuliani’s about fighting crime, and Andrew Yang, who wants to go after unlicensed vendors and increase police in the subway, will not take New York where it needs to go. Both of them have also faced questions about whether they really live here or are part of the city, and while Adams at least is civically involved, it’s a real concern for Yang. If you generally agree with the stances in this newsletter, you shouldn’t rank either of them.
New York is back to full form. Already, the energy in the city is off the charts, as people embrace the new outdoor spaces and remember that as much as they complained about a packed 6 train, they wouldn’t want it any other way. As New Yorkers rediscover their city and one another after a year apart, they’ll be searching for the frenetic, chaotic, and communal vibe that makes anyone in the five boroughs for more than a year a New Yorker for life. We should pick a mayor who wants to strengthen that community, not divide it or police it. It’s not 1976, people wait patiently for the flags to come down to go on the Great Lawn and hold the emergency door open so people can get a free subway ride. We don’t need an invasion force clearing out a park because a couple people are doing drugs. Let’s vote for leaders who are thinking about the people who need the train to be reliable to get to work on time, not the ones running to give a ticket to that same person who had to jump the turnstile to make it.
